【讀者分享】 AI時代，民主制度還會存在嗎？

2025. A new year which scarily indicates that we are now closer to 2050 than 2000. Nobody, not even AI can accurately predict what 2050 will look like, least of all me. So, let’s take a step back, look at what we have been through, and look at the world as of now. By that, this is what the world could look like, from a macro-history point of view.

1. Human as a species evolved from all living things by developing tools for ourselves. Every time when there is a major advancement, cost is down, efficiency is up, output is up. Easy enough to understand. 

2. With that in mind, literally every man-made product will be cheaper in real terms in time, when technology advances. By “in real terms”, instead of the nominal price tag, every available good is either costing lower relative to income, or more easily to access, or both. Think of flight tickets, food, clothing, gadgets. 

3. There is no reason to believe the development of AI to not follow the trend. As machines replaced human in labour intensive industries, AI will be replacing human in knowledge based industries. Bankers, Accountants, Lawyers, Doctors, the highest paid professionals will be affected first but it will be trickling downwards. On the flip side, this would mean a lower cost for tailor-made banking, legal services and healthcare. 

4. As AI develops to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), in the absence of government inventions, we should be witnessing a general reduction in price level, better known as a deflation. That is the same way, albeit more widespread and more influential, as what Japan is facing since 1990. I am surprised how few people are aware of, let alone discussing the deflationary effect of AI.

5. However, economics and the example of Japan tell us deflation will certainly be detrimental to the economy. The officials who control monetary policies, while having no power in halting the AI wave, are almost certainly intervening, just like what the Japanese did a decade, and also the Germans did a century ago, by quantitative easing. 

6. The loosening of the monetary policy will mask the deflationary effect of technological advancement but not the oblivion of the job market. This would happen even without the existence of Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI), AGI is enough to drive such changes. 

7. Although I am not sure if he intended to do what he said, Donald Trump is right on starting the process to repeal income tax by other taxation measures, not because it is libertarian, but based on the fact that you can not tax on things that will no longer be a factor of production.

8. There are scarily few discussions on Universal Basic Income (UBI). With the recent rate of change in the society however, either UBI or a form of negative income tax will be prevalent when a government desires to keep a functional society. A majority of white collar jobs as we know would be gone, and those remaining would either be a handful of responsibility bearing positions or regulatory ones. Both of these would continue to exist solely due to compliances, regulatory and legal reasons. 

9. In many societies, social unrest would escalate especially in those which define a person with one's occupation. However, if planned properly, a society with good governance could see people working on a short week working on whatever leftover by an Al based on their interest, and enjoying their time.

10. Rosy ending, happy days…Except it is not. Technological advancement unintendedbly but inevitably implies a higher threshold in overthrowing the system or a power. Until Industrial Revolution all it needs is a big group of mobs, after that, firepower. Now all efforts would be in vain without the support from an army.

11. Meanwhile, that implies one need to be control a smaller and smaller group in order to control the entire society (Imagine what would happen in South Korea if a faction of the army sided with the president during the martial law). With Al and the immense power given to those who control Al, the cards needed to power shrink even further.

12. Democracy is invented as the most free and equal (or least worst) system but it is widely adopted top-down only because those in power chose to have that. Democracy was implemented with the belief that it is the most efficient system, or at least it empowers the people to be efficient. Compared to a dictatorship, democracies imply a smaller share of the pie to those who have the power or wealth. The fundamental idea of that is democracy would make such a pie much larger.

13. Here brings the main problem. If humans need not apply, if Al does the hard work, if humans turn to regulations or basic income, what persuades those who are in power, likely the cohort who also owns any kind of the most advanced technologies, to uphold the current democratic system?

14. If there are ASI coming soon, the conclusion would rather be simple, such intelligent would be guaranteed to be out of any human's control. But the problem if there is not, the invention of an AGI would be giving those who own that an immense power such that there exist no way yet to stop them if they would want to destroy the current social system.

15. Every society's birth rate nosedives following urbanisation, when number of kids are no longer a factor for wealth accumulation unlike in a farming society. Following industrialisation and the invention of automobiles, the population of horses are all but down. What would happen if humans need not apply?

Absolutely nobody would have read that long I bet. And I'm sorry that I have no answer to the above. That's why I ask questions. I do hope that you have an answer.