Atlantic Council 1-6-25: Venezuela's New Dawn

I could have sworn the Atlantic Council had today's talk on Venezuela announced over a week ago. The AC had two separate events scheduled for January 6. I remember being torn but opting for the event with Belgium's Foreign Minister. This was on the heels of Trump's National Security Strategy, hence I thought I may gleam some insights on how the EU was reacting. Plus, it was in the afternoon, thus I wouldn't have to leave at 5 am to get from West Virginia on time.

Following Maduro's ouster, I checked the event pages of various DC think tanks to see if anyone had a talk scheduled yet. The Atlantic Council was the only one and it just so happened their Venezuela discussion was on the same day as the chat with Belgium's Foreign Minister. Was this the same event I nearly signed up for early last week? If so, it was certainly an interesting time for the Atlantic Council to schedule a discussion on Venezuela.

Moderator Jason Marczak assured us at the onset of the discussion that the event had been hastily put together following Saturday's events.

If you say so Jason.

For an event only announced two days ago, it had a fine turn out and was even broadcast on CSPAN. They also had a superb cast of characters present. It included Matthew Kroenig, the AC's vice-president and former strategist at the Pentagon. He worked on Mitt Romney's 2012 campaign and Narco Rubio's 2016 bid. Iria Puyosa was the most mundane of the candidates. She's a senior researcher for the Council specializing on how information operations undermine democracy, or some such shit. Alexander Gray had a senior role in the Trump 1.0 National Security Council before moving on to the AC, the American Foreign Policy Council and cofounding American Global Strategies. The other co-founder was former Trump 1.0 National Security Advisor and Mormon Robert C. O'Brien. I had wondered why a distinguished looking gentleman in the audience had flown in from Salt Lake City for this event. I suppose this is one possible answer.

Finally, there was James Story, a former US ambassador to Columbia and Venezuela. Officially. If you've been following The Gray Zone, you may have read how Mr. Story has played a leading role in advocating Maduro's removal while also going into business with numerous ex-CIA men. Jimmy is what roused me out of bed at 3 AM so I could attend this thing.

After some perfunctory crowing about Maduro's ouster from Marczak, we dove right in. Kroenig was up first to regal us with highlights from his New York Times opinion piece. He hailed Operation Absolute Resolve as a major win for US special operations forces (SOFs). After some uncertainty about their role following the wind down of the Global War on Terror, this operation apparently showed the way forward ("Soldier" for the Trump Syndicate?). He also compared the operation to Bush I's take down of Noriega, but in the context of Vietnam Syndrome. Just as Poppy Bush intended for the Panama operation to restore confidence to the US military after Vietnam, so to would Absolute Resolve following the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Jimmy was up next. it was his coming out party after being made a "Nonresident Senior Fellow" with the Atlantic Council. Jimmy indicated the US' work in Venezuela had just begun. He was not optimistic about Delcy Rodriguez's ability to manage the different factions in the country, live alone the interests of the US vs. Russia/China/Iran. He indicated the stable peace currently holding up in Venezuela would soon unravel once the US asked Rodriguez to do something that would put her at odds with China.

Alexander Gray drummed home Trump's interest in the Western Hemisphere. He pointed to the military drills China recently did in the Atlantic while insisting it wasn't a factor in taking out Maduro. Nonetheless, this would make China think twice. Gray also noted "extra-hemisphere powers" operating in the Americas would be assessed as greater security risks. Finally, he asserted that this was a signal of the US' commitment to restoring dominance in the Americas. As for possible fallout, he raised the possibility China could retaliate against Japan. No one seemed to think an invasion of Tawain was likely, however.

Later, Kroenig noted that the EU was more concerned about the precedent than the Pacific partners. He suggested Iran would be taking further US interventions all the more seriously after the events on 1/3/26.

After some nearly unintelligible comments from Puyosa, the mic was passed back to Jimmy. He scoffed at Venezuela being a major drug supplier, suggesting that no more than 10% of the illegal market belonged to them. Thus, it would be easy to sell the notion of US intervention stopping the flow of drugs from Venezuela as there were few drugs to stop in the first place.

Story insisted the Venezuela army was a shell with high desertion rates. It would be incapable of countering FARC and its dependency on China was such that it would be nearly impossible to cut relations. Story also asserted that American oil companies would be unlikely to invest in Venezuela until China was forced out. The only cure was to hold elections on the basis that this would install a credible government. He also insisted the US needed a footprint in the country, then suggested reestablishing the embassy (CIA station...).

From there, Gray made his pitch for a NATO-style military organization in the Americas without saying it directly. Rather, he emphasized the need to deepen military ties with regional partners, do more joint training, etc. He also pitched a unified Western Hemisphere command in the DoD to replace the current division between North and Southern Command.

When asked why Maduro didn't take Trump's deal, Story said that Maduro thought it was a bluff. He then went on to say that the US would be in the same position if Maduro took the deal. He insisted the US wouldn't be able to get to the oil without elections before noting that the Venezuela opposition didn't know how to win elections. He then suggested that "politics is a contact sport" and that the US had to get the opposition back into Venezuela ASAP.

Story wrapped by waxing on the breakdown of the US-dominated WWII order. He was adamant that the world would be less safe if the US ushered in a new order in which it didn't provide security for. These sentiments were echoed by Kroenig and Puyosa. American leadership is still indispensable, etc, etc. Kroenig signed off by asking for Trump to articulate a plan for Venezuela while Gray wanted the administration to ensure to the rest of the world that Maduro's removal wasn't a flash in the pan. I think that was a polite way of telling Cuba it's next.