金會員四月Q&A NDR補充資料(by Andy)

「NDR有無一些美國減息或暫停加息後黃金/金股表現嘅統計？」

(1989年起)歷次美聯儲最後一次加息至首次減息期間黃金表現

「最新NDR中分享既領先、同步及落後指標，是反映經濟活動強弱；但這對以看圖之技術分析，應如何配搭或輔助使用？」

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (Lag) are composite averages of individual economic indicators designed to capture turning points in aggregate economic activity better than any individual component.  Historically, turning points in the LEI have preceded those in the aggregate economy, while turning points in the Lag have occurred after those in the aggregate economy.  The ratio of CEI to Lag, the Co/Lag, is an alternative leading index. The indexes are released around the 20th of each month with data for the previous month.

Leading Economic Index components:

1. Average weekly hours - manufacturing
2. Average weekly initial jobless claims
3. Manufacturers' new orders - consumer goods and materials
4. ISM New Orders Index
5. Manufacturers' new orders - nondefense capital goods ex aircraft
6. Building permits - new private housing units
7. Stock prices - S&P 500
8. Leading Credit Index
9. Interest rate spreads - 10Y Treasury bonds less federal funds
10. Average consumer expectations for business and economic conditions

Coincident Economic Index components:

1. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
2. Personal income less transfer payments
3. Industrial production
4. Manufacturing and trade sales

Lagging Economic Index components:

1. Average duration of unemployment
2. Inventories to sales ratio - manufacturing and trade
3. Labor costs per unit of output - manufacturing
4. Average prime rate
5. Commercial and industrial loans
6. Consumer installment credit to personal income ratio
7. Consumer price index for services

The NDR Composite Leading Index is an equal-weighted average of the LEI and Co/Lag.  It reduces some of the emphasis on monetary variables which could skew the LEI, particularly in times of large and extensive quantitative easing, as in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 recession and financial crisis.  It shows a leading tendency to real equipment and software spending growth and corporate profits growth.

留意Leading Economic Index第七項為S&P 500表現，邏輯上LEI中用了最簡單的技術分析(價格表現)作為構成一部分，必然比其它先行技術指標慢，所以無所謂配合一說。尤其短炒圖係完全無關。

但LEI對經濟環境的啟示，有助操作而非分析。如上圖所示，LEI見頂同步/先行反映經濟環境轉變造成股市大型頂部，雖無助精細判斷時機，但可按此調節操作決定，包括如進取(狼死)程度、研判仔細(亂＿嚟)程度，最簡單如全股變增加現金、有槓桿變無槓桿、細股變大股等等，以策安全。

而同步及落後指標，NDR用兩者的比率，交叉驗證LEI，詳情見上。

「NDR中有無一些如領先、同步、落後指標，與股、債、REITS、貴金屬、油等投資物之 correlation可作參考？領先、同步及落後指標中，有無相互關係？E.g.邊條升穿邊條就對股、債、REITS、貴金屬、油等有利或不行？」

如上所述，價格一定快過(綜合)經濟指標，而且後者只有月度數字。交易直接用資產價格走勢判斷便可。